Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 22.273309 25.351529 28.669733 32.508744 36.824144 41.521313 47.017513
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 17.698574 21.863250 26.697467 32.708426 39.966441 48.430816 59.033519
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 15.387513 20.030801 25.680628 33.033050 42.317852 53.620197 68.385780
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 13.348731 18.209202 24.376513 32.732343 43.708519 57.580002 76.376902
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 12.016432 17.067685 23.712564 33.031515 45.690890 62.205895 85.286295
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 11.189991 16.481788 23.671911 34.070898 48.625203 68.153217 96.196593
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 10.059503 15.337962 22.733541 33.745706 49.597210 71.433422 103.598433
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 8.690088 13.706272 20.948253 32.041539 48.450307 71.636253 106.634536
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 8.195346 13.316505 20.906983 32.825517 50.877614 76.954533 117.157718
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 7.773814 12.992622 20.922305 33.667080 53.404581 82.510532 128.277514
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 7.155063 12.298537 20.308769 33.483407 54.338988 85.724124 136.039057
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 6.543196 11.558793 19.559577 33.016613 54.776061 88.168697 142.707972
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 6.080393 11.037812 19.136525 33.063662 56.059929 92.037218 151.882126
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 5.748220 10.710563 19.004045 33.570604 58.106033 97.198363 163.358132
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 5.399096 10.319734 18.728155 33.803071 59.689343 101.668342 173.907708
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 4.996145 9.796186 18.182379 33.528094 60.388936 104.716316 182.263682
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 4.722920 9.484967 17.979473 33.823461 62.056176 109.410988 193.530753
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 4.587954 9.420524 18.207928 34.889643 65.107168 116.552374 209.226045
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 4.261997 8.961433 17.683815 34.556006 65.656611 119.449074 217.797221
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 3.776959 8.147980 16.442285 32.813910 63.562253 117.653165 218.124310
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 3.657081 8.056752 16.557610 33.615406 66.143667 124.156206 233.300138
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 3.550885 7.984259 16.701868 34.475907 68.872439 131.034652 249.437509
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 3.331140 7.655631 16.319941 34.288099 69.608414 134.342993 259.266975